Friday, March 22, 2013

Mock Draft #4 - Post Combine/Free Agent Frenzy

Inching ever closer to April 25th, this is the time of year where mock drafts really start to make the most sense. After the combine and now in the middle of prodays, prospects have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Oh by the way, free agency has also begun. But before I touch on some of the more interesting moves to this point, I want to go back and give my three impressions coming from the Combine.
1.) Failure to Launch: I was expecting at least two or three QBs to really make a case for themselves at the combine. Not so much. No prospect took the bull by the horn and turned into a "no-doubter". The usual suspects of Geno Smith and Mike Glennon showed off their impressive arm talent but really did not show much anything else. People were really impressed with Smith, I was more along the lines of, "Nice job, you have more to give." I just have not been wowed yet by this crop of QBs which is major cause for concern as a Bills fan.
2.) Blazing Saddles: I can't remember a year in which 40-yd dash times were so disgustingly impressive. It is becoming a norm now year after year to almost expect sub 4.4 40s. That number used to be unheard of. My favorite part of the 40-yd dash was certainly the duel between West Virginia WR Tavon Austin and Texas WR Marquise Goodwin. Austin was the first receiver to run his 40 and unofficially flashed a 4.25. Not to be outdone, track star Goodwin clocked the same unofficial time. Officially Goodwin took the honors with the second fastest official time ever of 4.27, only behind Chris Johnson's 4.24.
3.) Te'o's Circus: I have never seen so much hype for a combine interview quite like the one Manti Te'o had. Of course, it was to be expected but in all honesty, what more could he have said that wasn't said already. Each reporter got the proverbial, "I'm embarrassed" or "I'm moving on" response. I don't believe the hoax will impact his draft stock but his performance at the combine certainly did. ESPN anaylst Mark May went as far as to say "Any team that wastes a 1st round pick on Manti Te'o, should fire their GM." That statement might be a little extreme but shows how much Te'o has fallen in the eyes of many. His proday will prove to be the biggest day in his football career, he will either here cha-ching or be an invisible presence, much like Lenay Kekua.
Now to the guys who already play. Last year at this time, being a Bills fan was absolutely amazing. Signing Mario Williams to the largest contract for a defensive player was something we have never seen. Being on top of the free agent market was an awesome feeling. As for this year, not much has happened to this point. However, the biggest move of course for the Bills this offseason has been the release of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. I like the move. The team was going nowhere with Fitz as their QB and this all but ensures a QB will be drafted at somepoint in this draft. I like the Manny Lawson addition as well as the resigning of Leodis McKelvin. More needs to be done in the form of a WR in free agency, but there is time left. 
Outside of the Bills, here are my top 5 moves of the NFL free agency period.
1.) Wes Welker signs with Denver: Did not see this one coming. Bold move by the Broncos.
2.) Seahawks trade for Percy Harvin: The Seahawks are a very legitimate SuperBowl contender this season.
3.) Kansas City trades for Alex Smith: With their QB in place, the Chiefs can do what they want to improve via the draft.
4.) Greg Jennings signs in Minnesota: Surprise, another Packer signs with the Vikes.
5.) Broncos are forced to release Elvis Dumervil: I love NFL technicalities.
Mock Draft #4 has some pick differences from previous mocks. I will cut down on the pick descriptions from on out as well.

1.) Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel OT/Texas A&M  

2.) Jacksonville Jaguars: Geno Smith QB/West Virginia  Perhaps a surprise pick, but the Jags need a desperate upgrade at this position.

**Trade**The Raiders trade the 3rd overall pick to the Lions in exchange for the 5th overall pick and the Lions 3rd round pick.
3.) Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner CB/Alabama  The Lions could not afford to wait with the Eagles lurking.

4.) Philadelphia Eagles: Dion Jordan DE/OLB/Oregon  A Duck reunion in Philly.

5.) Oakland Raiders (from DET): Sharrif Floyd DT/Florida
 

**Trade**The Cleveland Browns trade the 6th overall pick to the Jets in exchange for the 9th overall pick and the Jets 3rd round pick this year and compensatory pick next year.
6.) New York Jets: Eric Fisher OT/Central Michigan  The Jets had to get in front of the Cardinals and Bills to get a very coveted player.

7.) Arizona Cardinals: Lane Johnson OT/Oklahoma 

**Trade**The Buffalo Bills trade the 8th overall pick to the Rams in exchange for the 16th and 23rd overall picks and a 5th round pick and a 4th round pick next year. The Bills trade their 4th round pick this year.
8.) St. Louis Rams: Cordarrelle Patterson WR/Tennessee  With Warmack landing in their lap, the Bills have too many needs and look to trade back. 

9.) Cleveland Browns (from NYJ): Ziggy Ansah DE/OLB/BYU

**Trade**The Tennessee Titans trade the 10th overall pick to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for the 18th overall pick their 3rd and 4th round picks this year as well as a 4th round pick next year. The Titans also trade their 5th round pick this year.
10.) Dallas Cowboys: Chance Warmack G/Alabama  The Cowboys pounce on the opportunity to get arguably the best player in the draft.

11.) San Diego Chargers: Xavier Rhodes CB/Florida State

**Trade**The Miami Dolphins trade the 12th overall pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for the 17th overall pick the 3rd round pick this year and a compensatory pick next year. The Dolphins also trade their 5th round pick next year.
12.) Pittsburgh Steelers: Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia  With the linebacking corp in flux, the Steelers move up to nab the best in this class.

13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Star Lotulelei DT/Utah

14.) Carolina Panthers: Kenny Vaccaro S/Texas

15.) New Orleans Saints: Barkevious Mingo OLB/LSU

**Trade**The Buffalo Bills trade the 16th overall pick to the Houston Texans in exchange for the 27th overall pick this year as well as the Texans 3rd round pick this year and 1st round pick next year. The Bills also trade the 5th round pick from STL to Houston.
16.) Houston Texans (from BUF via STL): Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia  The Bills cease the opportunity to get a WR hungry team to bite. If history proves anything, the more picks a team has, the better off they will be.

17.) Miami Dolphins (from PIT): Jonathan Cooper G/North Carolina

18.) Tennessee Titans (from DAL): Kawann Short DT/Purdue

**Trade**The New York Giants trade the 19th overall pick to the Atlanta Falcons in exchange for the 30th overall pick the 3rd and 4th round picks this year and a 3rd round pick next year. The Giants also trade their 4th round pick this year.
19.) Atlanta Falcons: Bjoern Werner DE/Florida State  The German phenom falls due to a less that spectacular workout, but still is a first round talent and goes to a pass rush needy team. 

20.) Chicago Bears: Alec Ogletree LB/Georgia  After announcing they would not keep Brian Urlacher, ILB became a major position of need.

21.) Minnesota Vikings: Desmond Trufant CB/Washington

22.) Cincinnati Bengals: Arthur Brown OLB/Kansas State

23.) Buffalo Bills (from STL via WSH): Matt Barkley QB/USC  Finally, the Bills make a pick. And it just so happens to be their franchise QB, or so they hope. Barkley has been getting so much criticism for a poor season last year but his overall body of work is truly an outstanding career really when you factor in all the distractions during his tenure at USC. He has an above average arm and makes appropriate quick decisions an NFL QB needs to make. Easily would have been a top 5 pick last season.










24.) Indianapolis Colts: Alex Okafor DE/Texas

25.) Minnesota Vikings (from SEA): Robert Woods WR/USC  After losing Percy Harvin, the Vikes use the pick they received in return to get his replacement.

**Trade**The Green Bay Packers trade the 26th overall pick to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for the 38th overall pick and their 3rd round pick this year as well as a compensatory pick next season.26.) Arizona Cardinals: Mike Glennon QB/North Carolina State  Rumblings are Bruce Arians is very high on Glennon. He likes the pocket passers with the big arm, Glennon fits the bill. 

27.) Buffalo Bills (from HOU): DeAndre Hopkins WR/Clemson  The Bills add a much needed deep threat playmaker. Much like current Bill and former Clemson Tiger, CJ Spiller, Hopkins is explosive when he has the football. Barkley will now have a pretty solid stable of weapons to choose from as a rookie QB. As for the defense...well...thats another story.
28.) Denver Broncos: David Amerson CB/North Carolina State

29.) New England Patriots: D.J. Fluker OT/Alabama  Losing Vollmer forces their hand, if they lose him.
30.) New York Giants (from ATL): Damontre Moore DE/Texas A&M  Amazing what poor workouts will do to a player.

31.) San Francisco 49ers: Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame
32.) Baltimore Ravens: Matt Elam S/Florida  Reed signed in HOU, they need to find a replacement asap.

Onto Round 2:

33.) Jacksonville Jaguars: Datone Jones DE/UCLA

34.) San Francisco 49ers (from KC): Eric Reid S/LSU

35.) Philadelphia Eagles: Menelik Watson OT/Florida State

36.) Detroit Lions: Margus Hunt DE/SMU

37.) Cincinnati Bengals (from OAK): Eddie Lacy RB/Alabama

38.) Green Bay Packers (from ARZ): Jonathan Cyprien S/Florida International

39.) New York Jets: Ryan Nassib QB/Syracuse

40.) Tennessee Titans: Keenan Allen WR/California

41.) Buffalo Bills: Manti Te'o LB/Notre Dame  As down as I am on Te'o, he still can play and LB is a major need position for this team. Not having the first round label on him should help him ease into things. He is an incredible gifted player that if he were to fall here to the Bills, they would be stupid not to take him.

42.) Miami Dolphins: Andre Ellington RB/Clemson

43.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Johnthan Banks CB/Mississippi State

44.) Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri

45.) San Diego Chargers: Zach Ertz TE/Stanford

46.) St. Louis Rams: Trevardo Williams OLB/UConn

47.) Dallas Cowboys: E.J. Manuel QB/Florida State

48.) Pittsburgh Steelers: Terrance Williams WR/Baylor

49.) New York Giants: Barrett Jones C/Alabama

50.) Chicago Bears: Justin Pugh G/Syracuse

51.) Washington Redskins: Jordan Poyer CB/Oregon State

52.) Minnesota Vikings: Jesse Williams DT/Alabama

53.) Cincinnati Bengals: Sam Montgomery DE/LSU

54.) Miami Dolphins: Kevin Minter LB/LSU

55.) Green Bay Packers: Giovani Bernard RB/North Carolina

56.) Seattle Seahawks: Vance McDonald TE/Rice

57.) Houston Texans: Khaseem Greene OLB/Rutgers

58.) Denver Broncos: Johnathan Hankins DT/Ohio State

59.) New England Patriots: Sio Moore OLB/UConn

60.) Atlanta Falcons: Joseph Randle RB/Oklahoma State

61.) San Francisco 49ers: John Jenkins DT/Georgia

62.) Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Wilson QB/Arkansas

Round 3:

63.) Kansas City Chiefs: Quinton Patton WR/Louisiana Tech

64.) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jamar Taylor CB/Boise State

65.) Oakland Raiders (from DET): Landry Jones QB/Oklahoma

66.) Oakland Raiders: Markus Wheaton WR/Oregon State

67.) Philadelphia Eagles: Tank Carradine DE/Florida State

68.) Cleveland Browns: Justin Hunter WR/Tennessee

69.) Green Bay Packers (from ARZ): John Simon DE/Ohio State

70.) Tennessee Titans: Darius Slay CB/Mississippi State

71.) Buffalo Bills: Tyrann Mathieu CB/LSU  Two picks with question marks for the Bills? Unlikely but Mathieu is worth the risk. He is an extremely talented player that had he stayed out of trouble would have been a top 10 pick. Worth the shot here in round 3.

With the pick acquired from the Texans, the Buffalo Bills select: Brian Winters G/Kent State  Glaring need at the guard position.

Mock draft #5 will be coming out 2 weeks from draft day and only 2 more after that. I can feel it already and I can't wait til draft day. Thanks for reading!