Friday, January 11, 2013

First Mock for 2013 - Post BCS

Playoff football. Only few things can rival the intensity and awesomeness it brings. It also means we are that much closer to draft day. The draft order is based on projections of playoff teams. Regardless, I could not help myself and had to start my mock draft season. Of course, the Bills are my favorite team but I will be un biased and make the selection on who I really think they will take not who I want them to take. The head coach search is over now with Doug Marrone landing the Bills job. For me, the hiring is just alright. I don't love it and I don't hate it. We will just have to wait and see what he can do as head coach. He does have an endorsement from Sean Payton so that can only be good. There are also talks he may draft Ryan Nassib, his QB from 'Cuse. With his OC from 'Cuse Nathaniel Hackett in the mix, that is an even greater possibility but may not be what I think. I also love the hiring of DC Mike Pettine. All in all, good start to 2013 for the Bills, but remember when they signed Mario last year? How did that turn out? The season is a long way away but it is a good start to this point.

1.) Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel OT/Texas A&M  New head coach Andy Reid must be thinking "What the hell did I get myself into?". This team does not have a QB, a staple for Reid's offense and has been abysmal defensively the past 2 seasons. The logical thing to do is take a QB #1 right? Wrong. This year's QB draft class is not nearly worthy of a #1 pick let alone top 10. The Chiefs need to find stability offensively and Joeckel, arguably the best player in the draft fits nicely in KC. (NFL Comparable: Joe Thomas)
2.) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia  Another player arguably the best in this draft, Jones is comparable to Melvin Ingram from last season's draft. Ingram saw limited playing time in his rookie season in San Diego but his impact was certainly felt. The Jags do have a good front 7 on defense but could really use the pass rush specialist like an Ingram or Bruce Irvin in Seattle. 14.5 sacks in the SEC isn't too shaby and he led the nation in that category. (NFL Comparable: Melvin Ingram)

3.) Oakland Raiders: Bjoern Werner DE/Florida State  The German phenom lands in the black hole. Over the past few seasons, the Raiders have seen their first round picks turn from hope to bust in a matter of games. Werner, however, has JJ Watt like qualities. Although not as big or intimidating, Werner possesses the motor and power to collapse the pocket and force the QB to make decisions he wouldn't otherwise make. His 13.0 sacks this season were good enough for a third place tie in the entire nation. Not bad for a kid born outside the country. This is a safe pick for the Raiders, one that won't have the fans by the bay scratching their heads. (NFL Comparable: Jason Babin)

4.) Philadelphia Eagles: Eric Fisher OT/Central Michigan  Possibly a reach here, but if there is anything I have learned from doing these mocks is that NFL GMs are insane. Most of the time there is a clear cut favorite for a pick and the team takes a player no one has heard of (by no one I mean people other than me. I have no life and have seen virtually all of these players play.). Well, here is that pick. Fisher is a monster at 6'7" 305lbs and in my opinion should be a top 5 pick. The biggest knock on Fisher has nothing to do with his talent level but the fact that he played in the MAC might scare some people away. But the Eagles desperately need O-Line help. (NFL Comparable: D'Brickashaw Ferguson)

5.) Detroit Lions: Manti Te'o LB/Notre Dame  Bills fans will hate this pick. On draft day mute your TV when the commish announces Te'o to the Lions and you will here any number of expletives fly from other fans watching the draft. Te'o really does not need much descrption here. If you know and follow college football you know te'o is just an all around terrific LB and should be a star in the NFL. If he's not, thank you Lions. (NFL Comparable: London Fletcher)

6.) Cleveland Browns: Sam Montgomery DE/LSU  After not landing Chip Kelly, the Browns should move in a different direction and continue to build the defense then wait for a better QB class in years to come. Montgomery is a bit of a reach at this point but depending on his workouts could very well find himself in the top 10. Cleveland needs good players much like the Bills and Montgomery would be a start. (NFL Comparable: John Abraham)

7.) Arizona Cardinals: Geno Smith QB/West Virginia  The Cardinals have no other option with this pick. The longer they ignore this position, the further away they will be in coming close to competing in the NFL. Smith displayed flashes last season of being either a tremendous QB and at times one of the worst QBs in this draft. Arizona has to hope that Geno Smith is the answer at this position. (NFL Comparable: Cam Newton)

8.) Buffalo Bills: Robert Woods WR/USC  Though I prefer the Bills to target a guy like Dwayne Bowe in FA, this is the pick for me for now. Woods and Marquise Lee were studs for USC throughout thier careers. Woods had 76 catches last season for 846yds and 11 TDs. Not gaudy numbers but give this team another reciever to compliment Stevie Johnson might make all the difference in the world. Expecting a QB with this pick? I do not believe outside of Glennon the Bills would be interested in taking a QB this high in the draft. So instead follow the Cincinnati model of drafting the young stud wideout (ok Woods is NOT AJ Green but still a viable option) then get the QB in round 2 or 3. To me it makes sense and I am not being biased, I truly believe this is the way the Bills are leaning in the upcoming draft. (NFL Comparable: Percy Harvin)

9.) New York Jets: Mike Glennon QB/North Carolina State   Glennon is a hot name lately around draft experts. Mel Kiper of ESPN has Glennon ranked as his top QB in this class. Glennon is a true pocket passer which is still respectable around the NFL. He threw for 4,031 yds 31 TDs and 17 picks this season on a mediocre NC State team. The last time the Jets had a true pocket passer was Chad Pennington. (NFL Comparable: Tony Romo)

10.) Tennessee Titans: Star Lotulelei DT/Utah  The Titans are a team that is just kind of there. Sure they have a star at running back in CJ2K but the rest of the team, to me, is just blah. Adding this straight up dude to the middle of their defensive line could provide a spark. Although not a popular name or sexy name, Lotulelei is a beast, I'm talking Haloti Ngata type beast. His 5.0 sacks from 2012 are just part of what he is as a player. This guy can eat blocks creating opportunities for his linemates and linebackers and is actually quite quick for a man of his size 6'3" 320lbs. (NFL Comparable: Haloti Ngata)

11.) San Diego Chargers: Dee Milliner CB/Alabama  The Chargers were once again one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL in 2012. This might be the end of the line for Philip Rivers in SD so a QB could be a pick here but for now I went with the position that the Chargers desperately need fixed. Milliner is no Patrick Peterson or hell Stephon Gilmore (yeah, I went there) but he is a lot like Brandon Carr. He's got pretty good size for a CB (6'1" 198lbs.) and was a shut down corner on the most dominant defense in college football. A safe and smart pick for the Chargers. (NFL Comparable: Brandon Carr)

12.) Miami Dolphins: DeAndre Hopkins WR/Clemson  Give Tannehill someone to throw to. Brian Hartline quietly had a great season for the Phins but I suspect they are looking for the explosive play maker they havent had since the pre-holistic Ricky Williams days. Hopkins, along with every other offensive player at Clemson, has game changing speed and can hurt a team in the open field. Tannehill really wasn't all that bad last season as a rookie and nearly led his team to the playoffs. Hopkins could be the missing piece for the Dolphins to get over the hump. (NFL Comparable: Julio Jones)

13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jordan Poyer CB/Oregon State  Another pick much like Eric Fisher to Philly. However, Poyer is another name that is gaining a lot of momentum to the pre-draft stages. Not the biggest guy in the world (5'11" 190lbs) but can certainly pack a punch. Very physical corner that will help a secondary that got scorched last season (4,951yds 30 TDs given up). Ronde Barber is also most likely done with his career. (NFL Comparable: Adam "Pacman" Jones)

14.) Carolina Panthers: Lane Johnson OT/Oklahoma  As of today, Johnson is not a household name. But as the process goes on, I expect his name to be mentioned among the top O-Linemen in the draft. He did an admirable job at the University fo Oklahoma protecting Landry Jones and a balanced runnning game for the Sooners. The Panthers could use O-Line help for Cam Newton but I would not be surprised if this is a defensive pick here.  (NFL Comparable: Anthony Davis)

15.) New Orleans Saints: Barkevious Mingo OLB/LSU  Award for best name in the draft goes to Mingo. Montgomery's teammate at LSU now becomes division rival in the NFL but again his status to this point is up in the air. Mingo was anoth guy the scouts said had potential to be a top 5 pick. But lack of production and somewhat of a down year for the Bayou Bengals led to Mingo's descent. The Saints need help at rushing the passer as well as covering Rbs in space. Mingo has the size and speed necessary to do so. 4.0 sacks in the SEC is nothing to shake your head at. (NFL Comparable: Aldon Smith)

16.) St. Louis Rams: D.J. Fluker OT/Alabama The Rams seemingly had the most turbulent season in terms of ups and downs this year unlike any other. At one point you could argue they were playoff contenders at others they were borderline unwatchable. With that said they do have a pretty good team in the Louie. An improved offensive line still needs to be addressed to get Sam Bradford over the hump. Watch for the Rams to use both 1st rounds picks this year on the O-Line. (NFL Comparable: Nate Solder)

17.) Pittsburgh Steelers: Eddie Lacy RB/Alabama  Reach? Yes. Worth it? We'll see. He is not Trent Richardson or even Mark Ingram, but Lacy follows in the footsteps of 2 great Alabama running backs. I believe Rashard Mendenhall is done in Pittsburgh and this team needs to get back to ground and pound and Lacy is just that. At 5'10" 220lbs, Lacy brings it on every play. The Steelers improved the offensive line last season through the draft, now they just need a runner to utilize it. (NFL Comparable: Marshawn Lynch)

18.) Dallas Cowboys: Damontre Moore DE/Texas A&M  The second Aggie to be taken off the board is yet another name the is gaining traction. Moore was relatively unknown to begin the season but had a breakout year for the Aggies. His 12.5 sacks this past season was a +4 from his 8.5 last season. With DeMarcus Ware's recent injury problems, the Cowboys could use an extra man on the defense so they don't lose a beat when Ware needs a rest. (NFL Comparable: Robert Mathis)

19.) New York Giants: Alex Ogletree LB/Georgia  Ogletree does not have the greatest build of a linebacker but he certainly has the instincts of one. He has tremendous speed for a linebacker which gives him an edge against the run. The Giants lack a presence in the middle of their defense that can lead them back to their dominance. LSU's Kevin Minter could be an option here but I personally believe Ogletree is the better player. (NFL Comparable: Paul Poszlusny)

20.) Chicago Bears: Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame  The second Golden Domer to come off the board goes to DAAAA Bears. Eifert was the leading reciever for the Irish this past season with 44 catches for 624yds and 4 TDs. At times Eifert can dominate the game with his ability to stretch the field or catch the short to intermediate passes necessary for a first down. He is a reliable target that should help in the run game as well in Chicago. (NFL Comparable: Jason Witten)

21.) Minnesota Vikings: Dion Jordan DE/Oregon  The 6'6" 243lbs product is a very fast player. By that I mean he gets off the ball and can beat his man to get to the QB with relative ease. With that said, he doesn't have the signature most DEs in the NFL tend to have. He needs to improve his ability to bull rush as well. But having a teacher like Jared Allen will certainly help. Jordan is another one of those risers on the board during pre-draft analysis. This may be a little high but for now, I'm sticking with this pick. (NFL Comparable: Charles Johnson)

22.) Cincinnati Bengals: Arthur Brown OLB/Kansas State  The Bengals quietly boast one of the best defenses in the NFL. While RB is a deifnite option at this spot, that position is no longer a major position of need in the NFL. Offensively this team has their franchise QB and WR in place. At some point I do expect the Bengals to take their franchise RB but for now, Brown is a strong candidate for the Bengals. (NFL Comparable: Bart Scott)

23.) St. Louis Rams (from WSH): Chance Warmack G/Alabama  Like I said at pick 16, the Rams are taking a page out of the 49ers book and spending 2 first round picks on offensive lineman. Warmack is a stud. He might be the best offensive lineman in the draft but plays at a position that is not considered premium. He literally can take on 2 rushers at once and is a punisher in the run game. Great speed and ability to get out in space to block downfield for screens or toss plays. (NFL Comparable: Logan Mankins)

24.) Indianapolis Colts: Johnthan Banks CB/Mississippi State  The surprise team in the NFL this despite having the second coming of Peyton Manning (really how lucky are the Colts? Must be why their logo is a horseshoe). Offensively, this team is a good run game away from being dominant. Defensively, need improvement. Their secondary was not terrible but it could still use at least one guy who can shut downthe other team's top reciever. Banks can do just that after lighting up the SEC this year. (NFL Comparable: Carlos Rogers)

*25.) Baltimore Ravens: Matt Elam S/Florida  To draft Ray Lewis' replacement or Ed Reed's replacement? That will be the number 1 question for the Ravens this offseason. Ray Lewis is of course retiring whenever Baltimore's season ends. Ed Reed is not far behind. Elam is a ferocious hitter and will fit in with the Ravens defense. He does however need to improve overall on his tackling. He tends to go for the big hit too often which will not survive in the NFL. (NFL Comparable: Earl Thomas)

*26.) San Francisco 49ers: Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri  The age and injury history of Justin Smith should be a concern for the 49ers. The really do not have much depth on the defensive line and could use another big guy to make a difference. Richardson is relatively unknown at this point but I believe will end up being a top 15 pick. He doesn't have ideal nose tackle size (6'3" 295lbs) but his lateral movement and quickness off the snap make him an appealing prospect. (NFL Comparable: Kyle Williams)

*27.) Houston Texans: Justin Hunter WR/Tennessee  At one point during the season, Hunter was regarded as the top WR in this draft. But after some injuries and poor production this season, his stock has dropped. With that said the 6'4" 200lbs Volunteer could be exactly what the Texans need to really be the dominant offense most believed they were. Adding his 73 catches and 9 TDs from a one year ago at Tennessee could make the Texans once again the favorite to win it all. (NFL Comparable: Vincent Jackson)

*28.) Atlanta Falcons: Andre Ellington RB/Clemson  Another Clemson Tiger off the board in round 1. Ellington is no where near the talent of CJ Spiller but he certainly has that game changing ability. Michael Turner lost a lot of his touches to Jacquizz Rodgers this past season but Rodgers is not a number 1 back. Ellington very weel could be a number one with his gaudy numbers he put up as a Tiger (1,081yds 5.1/att 8 TDs, 232yds receiving 16.1/att 1 TD). (NFL Comparable: DeAngelo Williams)

*29.) Seattle Seahawks: Zach Ertz TE/Stanford  The unorthodox Pete Carroll picks continue. Ertz is not far behind in terms of his ability to pick up first downs and stretch the field much like Chicago Bears first round pick Tyler Eifert. He had an impressive season with the Cardinal hauling in 69 catches for nearly 1,000 yds with 6 TDs. Russell Wilson was incredible this year as a third round rookie. Giving him a security blanket like Ertz may very well vault the team form the Pacific northwest to the SuperBowl next season. (NFL Comparable: Jermaine Gresham)

*30.) New England Patriots: Jesse Williams DT/Alabama  Wes Welker may very well be done with the Pats so WR could be a logical option here for Bill Belichick. But I will hold out on WR for now and go with a pick that will be sure to be Vince Wilfork's replacement. Williams is not as dominant as Marcel Dareus was for Bama but he certainly has this skills to succeed at the next level. Any player coached by Nick Saban is pretty close to as safe a pick there is in the NFL. Plus, Belichick also tapped into Bama's talent pool selecting Dont'a Hightower in the 1st round last season. (NFL Comparable: Calais Campbell)

*31.) Green Bay Packers: Barrett Jones C/Alabama  Back to back Crimson Tide players off the board at the end of the first round. Jones is no doubt the top center in this draft but is the first round too early to take one? I think so but the Pack desperately need to fill that position. Jeff Saturday was a disappointment after signing as a fee agent. Not only does Jones provide stability and serve as the signal caller for the O-Line, he brings tremendous leadership and a winning attitude from his days at Alabama. Smart, safe pick for the Packers. (NFL Comparable: Max Unger)

*32.) Denver Broncos: Alex Okafor DE/Texas  The rich get richer. Already boasting two of the NFL's top pass rushers in Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, the Broncos get the purest pass rusher in this draft in Okafor. Now I could be speaking biased here as a true Horns fan but Okafor seemed to be in on every play this year for Texas. He causes so many problems both in the run and pass game but his true instinct is to get after the passer. With 12.5 sacks this year, Okafor was by far the best player for the Longhorns this season. (NFL Comparable: Cameron Wake)

* - Based on how I believe the rest of the postseason will turn out...

Onto Round 2:

33.) Jacksonville Jaguars: Johnathan Hankins DT/Ohio State 

34.) Kansas City Chiefs: Matt Barkley QB/USC

35.) Philadelphia Eagles: Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU

36.) Detroit Lions: Xavier Rhodes CB/Florida State

37.) Cincinnati Bengals (from OAK): Montee Ball RB/Wisconsin

38.) Arizona Cardinals: Eric Reid S/LSU

39.) New York Jets: Da'Rick Rogers WR/Tennessee Tech

40.) Tennessee Titans: Oday Aboushi OT/Virginia

41.) Buffalo Bills: Tyler Wilson QB/Arkansas  Well people reading this, here it is the Bills new franchise QB, or so we hope. Initially, I never liked the idea of Wilson being drafted here. But I watched some games and highlights and he certainly has the arm strength mobility and accuracy to play QB in the NFL. The major reason he fell off as a top 10 pick this year was that his team was awful this season. Can you blame him though? His coach was fired and his top RB and recievers were injured. Despite that Wilson still threw for 3,387yds 21 TDs and 13 picks. Compare that to his 2011 season where he threw for 3,638yds 24 TDs and just 6 picks. He has the talent but he needs to cut down on his mistakes and read defenses better. With good coaching he very well could do just that.

42.) Miami Dolphins: Mike Gillislee RB/Florida 

43.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: David Amerson CB/North Carolina State

44.) Carolina Panthers: Khaseem Greene OLB/Rutgers

45.) San Diego Chargers: Keenan Allen WR/California

46.) St. Louis Rams: Tharold Simon CB/LSU

47.) Pittsburgh Steelers: Shariff Floyd DT/Florida

48.) Dallas Cowboys: Landry Jones QB/Oklahoma

49.) New York Giants: Jonathan Cooper G/North Carolina

50.) Chicago Bears: Cordarrelle Patterson WR/Tennessee

 51.) Minnesota Vikings: Terrance Williams WR/Baylor

52.) Cincinnati Bengals: John Jenkins DT/Georgia

53.) Washington Redskins: Kenny Vaccaro S/Texas

54.) Indianapolis Colts: Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia

55.) Baltimore Ravens: Khaled Holmes C/USC

56.) San Francisco 49ers: T.J. McDonald S/USC

57.) Houston Texans: Kevin Minter LB/LSU

58.) Atlanta Falcons: Jackson Jeffcoat DE/Texas

59.) Seattle Seahawks: Chase Thomas OLB/Stanford

60.) New England Patriots: Stedman Bailey WR/West Virginia

61.) Green Bay Packers: Desmond Trufant CB/Washington

62.) Denver Broncos: Kiko Alonso LB/Oregon

With my first mock draft of 2013 wrapped up, I hope you enjoyed. Send me feed back and perhaps a debate will ensue. I expect to send a new draft out every few weeks up until the draft. I will post 2 drafts the week of the draft with my last one coming the morning of.

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